End of Year 2008

Few more days we are going to pass this year. What a year for the financial market,especially... Crisis, recession, cutting rates, stimulus packages are the main issue of this year. And We shall meet them next year.

Until the end of 2008, which is just 8 more days, people are squaring their position in stock markets. They don't want to hold anything in holidays. US dollars and Japanese yen are still stronger because of this action. Risk aversion plays. Euro is still stronger then pound sterling because of the future interest rate gap between this two. All of this situation might continue until the beginning of next month.

Extremely Bearish on USD

16.30 GMT, Wow,,, what a day! it's extremely bearish on USD. Markets look like anticipating The Fed Monetary Meeting on 16th December. It is expected to cut rate for 50 basis points more. I think, USD can still be bearish until mid European session. We will see after the news released, with this kind of volatility in financial markets, dollar can still show its power.

Auto Bailout In Deadlock, Yen And USD Are Strong

09.35 GMT, Today's hot issue is about US auto industry's bailout didn't get approval from US Senate. This issue makes Stock Index dropping and some risk aversion is seen. Yen and USD are strong because of that. Even the strong euro that hit 1.3400 yesterday is down 200 pips against USD after the auto's bailout news released. Yen is also continuing to strengthen against USD,GBP, and EUR.

Let's see one by one..

On GBPUSD: There is a support near 1.4850. and a resistance near 1.4960. We can put a sell stop just below 1.4850 and a buy stop just above 1.4960.

On EURUSD: Euro is still stronger against USD and GBP. There is a support near 1.3245, and probably will reach its high again.

On USDJPY: Yen has a resistance near 91.20. The chances to the downside is bigger than to the upside. We can sell near that resistance.

Ok, that's all folks, thanks for reading, and enjoy your trading,,

Euro Reached New High Against USD

09.37 GMT, Euro is picking up new power against US dollar this week. It reached a new high in two month against US dollar at 1.3158. Some analyst said that it's because a relatively calm markets, collapsing volatility and investors keen to exit some of their short positions ahead of Christmas holidays.

For the rest of the day, EURUSD has a support near yesterday's high at 1.3070. If it holds, EURUSD might stay above 1.3100 today. On the contrary, EURUSD will have a pullback to 1.3000

Dollar Stronger Again

10.00 GMT, Yesterday the dollar was weaker against major currency due to stock index hovering in the positive territory. In US, The bailout of the big 3 of automotive industry is the issue in this week. The possibility that the bailout approved by the Congress is getting bigger and it made investors going back to stock markets at the beginning of this week.

Today we see the dollar is stronger against GBP and EUR. It seems to anticipate the grim look on economic indicator of the British and European country.

Let's take a look one by one:

On GBP/USD: There is a support at 1.4720. If it holds, the price will stay at 1.4800 territory. But it is still strong dollar issue. If 1.4720 breaks, GBP/USD will head to 1.4500 territory again.

On USD/JPY: Looking at 4H Chart, the trend is bearish for USD/JPY. The slowdown in global economy causes unwinding carry trades. USD/JPY might reach 90.00 figures and it's possible going under that.

Ok folks, c ya next time,,thanks for reading

After Non-Farm Payrolls

14.00 GMT, As we assumed before, NFP figure came up real bad. -533K Vs -340K (forecast). 30 minutes after the release, US dollar is still strong. Stock indexes are deteriorated. And Yen is stronger too. It is unwinding carry trades. The figures did not hit the USD, it hit US Stock index.

That's all, folks,, happy trading

Another Non-Farm Payrolls Day

10.00 GMT,Friday again,,, This is the first Friday of the month so we will meet the most noticeable economic indicator in the financial world -- US Non-Farm payrolls. The slowing growth all over the world will end up with more cutting jobs. In US which is the epicenter of global crisis, the economy is getting slower. We saw every weeks its initial jobless claims were growing, so we might assume that its Non-farm payrolls will be worse than before. Polls made by Reuters expect NFP will come out -320K in November compare with -240 in October. This kind of figure might weaken the US dollar against other major currencies, and also might deteriorate Dow Jones further.

Let see one by one,,,,
On GBP/USD -- we see a resistance at 1.4815 and support at 1.4630. We might open a buy position arround 1.4665 stop loss at 1.4810 target at 1.4815 Or if the price break 1.4750 after the release of NFP figure, we might open a buy position above that number, put a stop loss near 1.4660 target arround 1.4900.

On USD/JPY -- As NFP figures will deteriorate Dow Jones Index, USD/JPY will go down further. It is unwinding carry trade, yen is getting stronger. We can open sell on a retrace arround 92.30, put a stop loss near 92.70 and target near 91.00

Ok folks,, that's my opinion so far,, happy trading,,and please give me some inputs,, thanks

Introducing Speech

HELLO World...

Today I decided to make my own blog covering foreign exchange trading. My 3-year experience since 2005 in Forex Trading make me want to share my opinion about this trading. This blog will cover my daily opinion about today's market and where to take a position. You can use this information for your reference to trade in the market.

Let me introduce myself... I'm Ariston Tjendra, Live in Jakarta, Indonesia. I currently work as a research staff in a forex brokerage company in Jakarta.